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Transition Periods and Long Memory Property
März, Jan ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between the distribution of structural breaks within a data sample and the estimated parameter of long memory. We use Monte Carlo simulations to generate data from processes with specific values of parameters. Subsequently we join the data with various shifts to mean and examine how the estimates of the parameters vary from their true values. We have discovered that the overestimate of the long memory parameter is higher when the breaks are clustered together. It further increases when the signs of the shifts are positively correlated within the clusters while negative correlation reduces the bias. Our findings enable the improvement of robustness of estimators against the presence structural breaks. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Models of changes in econometric time sequences
Strejc, Petr ; Hušková, Marie (advisor) ; Dvořák, Marek (referee)
This paper is concerned with change-point detection in parameters of econometric regression models when a training set of data without any change is available. There are presented two well- known sequential tests - CUSUM test for linear regression model and a test based on weighted residuals for an autoregressive time series - including their asymptotical properties under certain conditions. Two asymptotically equivalent variance estimators are compared in a finite sample situation using Monte Carlo simulations. There are also presented and compared critical value approximations using different bootstrapping methods and variance estimators. Finally, the weighted residual test is applied on S&P 500 historical data.
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Models of changes in econometric time sequences
Strejc, Petr
This paper is concerned with change-point detection in parameters of econometric regression models when a training set of data without any change is available. There are presented two well- known sequential tests - CUSUM test for linear regression model and a test based on weighted residuals for an autoregressive time series - including their asymptotical properties under certain conditions. Two asymptotically equivalent variance estimators are compared in a finite sample situation using Monte Carlo simulations. There are also presented and compared critical value approximations using different bootstrapping methods and variance estimators. Finally, the weighted residual test is applied on S&P 500 historical data.
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Transition Periods and Long Memory Property
März, Jan ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
This thesis examines the relationship between the distribution of structural breaks within a data sample and the estimated parameter of long memory. We use Monte Carlo simulations to generate data from processes with specific values of parameters. Subsequently we join the data with various shifts to mean and examine how the estimates of the parameters vary from their true values. We have discovered that the overestimate of the long memory parameter is higher when the breaks are clustered together. It further increases when the signs of the shifts are positively correlated within the clusters while negative correlation reduces the bias. Our findings enable the improvement of robustness of estimators against the presence structural breaks. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Models of changes in econometric time sequences
Strejc, Petr
This paper is concerned with change-point detection in parameters of econometric regression models when a training set of data without any change is available. There are presented two well- known sequential tests - CUSUM test for linear regression model and a test based on weighted residuals for an autoregressive time series - including their asymptotical properties under certain conditions. Two asymptotically equivalent variance estimators are compared in a finite sample situation using Monte Carlo simulations. There are also presented and compared critical value approximations using different bootstrapping methods and variance estimators. Finally, the weighted residual test is applied on S&P 500 historical data.
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Estimating the determinants of FDI in Transition economies: comparative analysis of the Republic of Kosovo
Berisha, Jetëmira ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
This study develops a panel data analysis over 27 transition and post transition economies for the period 2003-2010. Its intent is to investigate empirically the true effect of seven variables into foreign flows and takes later on the advantage of observed findings to conduct a comparative analysis between Kosovo and regional countries such: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. As the breakdown period (2008-2010) was included in the data set used to modelling the behaviour of FDI, both Chow test and the time dummies technique suggest the presence of structural break. Ultimately, empirical results show that FDI is positively related with one year lagged effect of real GDP growth, trade openness, labour force, low level of wages proxied by remittances, real interest rate and the low level of corruption. Besides, the corporate income tax is found to be significant and inversely related with foreign flows. The comparative analysis referring the growth rate of real GDP shows that Kosovo has the most stable macroeconomic environment in the region, but still it is continuously confronted by the high deficit of trade balance and high rate of unemployment. Appart, the key obstacle that has abolished efforts for foreign investment attraction is found to be the trade blockade of...
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Models of changes in econometric time sequences
Strejc, Petr ; Hušková, Marie (advisor) ; Dvořák, Marek (referee)
This paper is concerned with change-point detection in parameters of econometric regression models when a training set of data without any change is available. There are presented two well- known sequential tests - CUSUM test for linear regression model and a test based on weighted residuals for an autoregressive time series - including their asymptotical properties under certain conditions. Two asymptotically equivalent variance estimators are compared in a finite sample situation using Monte Carlo simulations. There are also presented and compared critical value approximations using different bootstrapping methods and variance estimators. Finally, the weighted residual test is applied on S&P 500 historical data.
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Natural rate of unemployment or hysteresis? The case of the Czech Republic
Bechný, Jakub ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Kadeřábková, Božena (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to empirically investigate, using stationarity and unit root tests, whether is the labor market of the Czech Republic developing accordingly to the natural rate of unemployment theory, or the hysteresis theory. Taking into consideration a structural break in the second half of the nineties I conclude, that the hysteresis at the national level works only in unemployment. Employment data, on the other hand, do not indicate the hysteresis. Unemployment tests on the regional level then suggest, that transitory shocks have permanent effects only in half of the regions.
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